Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Stephen Knowles Author-Name-First: Stephen Author-Name-Last: Knowles Author-Email: stephen.knowles@otago.ac.nz Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, University of Otago, New Zealand Author-Name: Maroš Servátka Author-Name-First: Maroš Author-Name-Last: Servátka Author-Email: maros.servatka@canterbury.ac.nz Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics and Finance, University of Canterbury, New Zealand Author-Name: Trudy Sullivan Author-Name-First: Trudy Author-Name-Last: Sullivan Author-Email: trudy.sullivan@otago.ac.nz Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, University of Otago, New Zealand Title: Deadlines, Procrastination, and Inattention in Charitable Giving: A Field Experiment Abstract: We conduct a field experiment to analyze the effect of deadline length on charitable giving. Subjects are invited to complete an online survey, with a donation going to charity if they do so. Participants are given either one week, one month or no deadline by which to respond. Donations are lower for the one month deadline, than for the other two treatments, consistent with the model of inattention developed in Taubinsky (2014) and also with the idea that not specifying a deadline conveys urgency. Length: 19 pages Creation-Date: 2014-03 Revision-Date: 2014-03 File-URL: http://www.otago.ac.nz/economics/otago088472.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2015 Number: 1501 Classification-JEL: C93, D64 Keywords: charitable giving; deadline effects; procrastination; inattention; field experiment Handle: RePEc:otg:wpaper:1501 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Mohammad Jaforullah Author-Name-First: Mohammad Author-Name-Last: Jaforullah Author-Email: mohammad.jaforullah@otago.ac.nz Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, University of Otago, New Zealand Title: International tourism and economic growth in New Zealand Abstract: This paper examines whether the tourism-led growth hypothesis holds for the New Zealand economy. Using unit root tests, cointegration tests and vector error correction models, and annual data over the period 1972-2012 on international tourism expenditure, real gross domestic product (GDP) and the exchange rate for New Zealand, it finds that the tourism-led growth hypothesis holds for New Zealand. The long-run elasticity of real GDP with respect to international tourism expenditure is estimated to be 0.4, meaning that a 1% growth in tourism will result in a 0.4% growth of the NZ economy. This finding implies that the New Zealand Government’s policy to promote New Zealand as a preferred tourism destination in the key international tourism markets may boost economic growth. Length: 26 pages Creation-Date: 2015-04 Revision-Date: 2015-04 File-URL: http://www.otago.ac.nz/economics/otago089892.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2015 Number: 1502 Classification-JEL: C32, F14, L83 Keywords: Tourism; Economic growth; Cointegration; Granger causality; Vector error correction model; New Zealand Handle: RePEc:otg:wpaper:1502 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Mohammad Jaforullah Author-Name-First: Mohammad Author-Name-Last: Jaforullah Author-Email: mohammad.jaforullah@otago.ac.nz Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, University of Otago, New Zealand Author-Name: Alan King Author-Name-First: Alan Author-Name-Last: King Author-Email: alan.king@otago.ac.nz Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, University of Otago, New Zealand Title: is New Zealand's economy vulnerable to world oil market shocks? Abstract: We assess New Zealand’s vulnerability to oil shocks by estimating its price and income elasticities of demand for imported oil and by testing. For Granger causality between oil imports, their price and GDP. Based on data for the period 1987Q2–2012Q4, we find the short-run price and income elasticities to be statistically insignificant. However, the long-run price and income elasticity estimates are significant and equal to −0.34 and 1.61, respectively. We also find that oil imports, and to some extent oil prices, Granger-cause real GDP, indicating that the New Zealand economy is vulnerable to shocks in the world oil market. Length: 24 pages Creation-Date: 2015-03 Revision-Date: 2015-03 File-URL: http://www.otago.ac.nz/economics/otago089971.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2015 Number: 1503 Classification-JEL: C32, Q41, Q43 Keywords: Oil imports; Price elasticity; Income elasticity; Granger causality; Cointegration; Vector error correction model Handle: RePEc:otg:wpaper:1503 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Stephen Knowles Author-Name-First: Stephen Author-Name-Last: Knowles Author-Email: stephen.knowles@otago.ac.nz Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, University of Otago, New Zealand Author-Name: Trudy Sullivan Author-Name-First: Trudy Author-Name-Last: Sullivan Author-Email: trudy.sullivan@otago.ac.nz Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Preventive and Social Medicine, University of Otago, New Zealand Title: Does Charity Begin at Home or Overseas? Abstract: We conduct a field experiment to analyse whether a representative sample of the population has a preference for giving money to an international development charity or to a charity helping families in need in the home country. The majority of participants reveal a preference for giving to the local charity, rather than the international development charity. Participants were given the option of commenting on why they chose the charity they did, and we conduct a qualitative analysis of these responses. We also analyse quantitatively whether participants’ individual characteristics are correlated with the choice of charity. Length: 18 pages Creation-Date: 2015-06 Revision-Date: 2015-06 File-URL: http://www.otago.ac.nz/economics/otago109836.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2015 Number: 1504 Classification-JEL: C93; D64 Keywords: charitable giving, field experiment, local v international giving Handle: RePEc:otg:wpaper:1504 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: David Fielding Author-Name-First: David Author-Name-Last: Fielding Author-Email: david.fielding@otago.ac.nz Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, University of Otago, New Zealand Title: Understanding the Etiology of Electoral Violence: The Case of Zimbabwe Abstract: Recent theoretical and empirical work indicates that incumbent governments are likely to attempt to influence election outcomes by violent means (rather than by bribery and fraud) when their level of popular support is relatively low. However, evidence also suggests that in some countries electoral violence can be quite easy to thwart through peaceful means. This may seem surprising when the incumbent has control over an extensive and well-equipped state security apparatus. The analysis of Zimbabwean data in this paper suggests an explanation: the incumbent prefers to avoid the direct involvement of the state security apparatus when intimidating voters (perhaps because such involvement would undermine the incumbent’s legitimacy abroad), and relies instead on informal groups with very limited organizational capacity. One consequence in Zimbabwe is that the intimidation is heavily focused in places where the incumbent is relatively popular, ceteris paribus. Length: 32 pages Creation-Date: 2015-06 Revision-Date: 2015-06 File-URL: http://www.otago.ac.nz/economics/otago109848.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2015 Number: 1505 Classification-JEL: Keywords: Elections; Voter intimidation; Zimbabwe Handle: RePEc:otg:wpaper:1505 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: David Fielding Author-Name-First: David Author-Name-Last: Fielding Author-Email: david.fielding@otago.ac.nz Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, University of Otago, New Zealand Author-Name: Shef Rogers Author-Name-First: Shef Author-Name-Last: Rogers Author-Email: shef.rogers@otago.ac.nz Author-Workplace-Name: Department of English and Linguistics, University of Otago, New Zealand Title: Copyright Payments in Eighteenth-Century Britain, 1701–1800 Abstract: Although there have been extensive critical studies of the laws and conceptual understandings of early modern copyright in the past few decades, less attention has been devoted to the authorial payments that followed from those developments. Studies of individual authors or genres have collected details of payments to authors, but no comparative study of the values of those payments exists. This essay assesses 439 examples of copyright payments about which we know enough to match the payment to a particular edition of a book so that we can ascertain the book’s physical format and construction and thus estimate a publisher’s expenses relative to the price paid for the copy. We offer some comparative context for this Data within the larger body of publications across the century, in order to Gauge the degree to which these results are representative. Length: 22 pages Creation-Date: 2015-06 Revision-Date: 2015-06 File-URL: http://www.otago.ac.nz/economics/otago109849.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2015 Number: 1506 Classification-JEL: Keywords: Handle: RePEc:otg:wpaper:1506 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: David Fielding Author-Name-First: David Author-Name-Last: Fielding Author-Email: david.fielding@otago.ac.nz Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, University of Otago, New Zealand Author-Name: Johan Rewilak Author-Name-First: Johan Author-Name-Last: Rewilak Author-Email: j.rewilak@hud.ac.uk Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Strategy, Marketing and Economics, University of Huddersfield, Queensgate, Huddersfield Title: Credit Booms, Financial Fragility and Banking Crises Abstract: Recent evidence indicates that surges in capital inflows and credit booms can increase the probability of a subsequent banking crisis. Using a new country-level panel database on financial fragility, we take this analysis further by exploring the interaction of surges, booms and fragility. We find that booms and fragility are both important, but booms increase the probability of a crisis only in financial systems with a relatively high level of fragility. Booms appear not to be dangerous in countries with a robust banking system. Length: 19 pages Creation-Date: 2015-08 Revision-Date: 2015-08 File-URL: http://www.otago.ac.nz/economics/otago120402.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2015 Number: 1507 Classification-JEL: E44, G01 Keywords: Panel data; Financial crises; Financial fragility; Credit booms; Capital surges Handle: RePEc:otg:wpaper:1507 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: P. Dorian Owen Author-Name-First: Dorian Author-Name-Last: Owen Author-Email: dorian.owen@otago.ac.nz Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, University of Otago, New Zealand Title: Evaluating ingenious instruments for fundamental determinants of long-run economic growth and development Abstract: The empirical literature on the determinants of cross-country differences in long-run development is characterized by the ingenious nature of many of the instruments used. However, scepticism remains about their ability to provide a valid basis for causal inference. This paper examines the extent to which explicit consideration of the statistical adequacy of the underlying reduced form (RF), which provides an embedding framework for the structural equations, can usefully complement economic theory as a basis for assessing instrument choice in the fundamental determinants literature. Diagnostic testing of RFs in influential studies reveals evidence of model misspecification, with parameter non-constancy and spatial dependence of the residuals almost ubiquitous. This feature, surprisingly not previously identified, potentially undermines inferences about the structural parameters, such as the quantitative and statistical significance of different fundamental determinants. Length: 45 pages Creation-Date: 2015-12 Revision-Date: 2015-12 File-URL: http://www.otago.ac.nz/economics/otago416601.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2015 Number: 1508 Classification-JEL: O10, O40, C36 Keywords: Fundamental determinants of economic development; long-run economic growth; instrumental variables; reduced form; statistical adequacy Handle: RePEc:otg:wpaper:1508